The PTI had virtually closed down Islamabad, Pakistan’s capital city since Imran Khan gave the call  for a march. The government was determined not to allow the protesters into the capital. The  march was a show of strength by the PTI, to force the Shehbaz Sharif government to free their leader. The former prime minister has been in jail since last August, and faces a clutch of cases, the most significant being charges of terrorism. 

When the protests began on Sunday, the PTI was in control and calling the shots. The government was in panic mode as thousands of protesters took to the street and marched towards the capital. They laid siege to the capital city as a helpless government tried to stop the marchers, bent on freeing their leader. Security forces battled the protestors with tear gas and rubber bullets as they overturned barricades to enter Islamabad. The party leaders were jubilant and refused the government offer of an alternative protest site. "Bushra Bibi is smelling blood, and is not willing to compromise," defence minister Khawaja Asif said. Six people died, including four para military officers and two policemen during clashes with protesters.

But when the army cracked down and arrested hundreds of party cadres at midnight, the protests finally fizzled out.

Bushra Bibi and the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur slipped out of Islamabad and landed "safely" in KP, which is ruled by PTI. 

“In view of the government’s brutality and the government’s plan to turn the capital into a slaughterhouse for unarmed citizens, [we] announce the temporary suspension of the peaceful protest for the time being, ” the PTI announced early on Wednesday.

What happens next is not known, but this is certainly not the end of the story. Political instability at a time when Pakistan is facing multiple challenges both on the economic front as well as from terror groups is bad news for the Shehbaz Sharif government. The country is also deeply polarised by those who swear by the PTI and the rest.

PTI's Popularity

The PTI has enormous support among ordinary citizens and its young storm troopers are ready to risk their lives for Imran Khan. "We are here for Imran Khan, only for Imran Khan. He had said come out not for me but to save the country,’’ an unnamed protester was quoted by the local press as saying.

Imran Khan has  support from every section of the people. In fact, the PTI won the maximum seats in February parliamentary elections despite not getting a party symbol. Toda, if fresh polls are called, the PTI will romp home with a sizeable majority. 

When the PTI first started, it was mostly an urban party. But today it has support from across the country. The cadres are mainly young, both from the rural hinterland as well as from the cities and towns. Women, ordinary office goers as well as celebrities are die-hard fans.

Imran Khan was a hero long before he became a politician. He is the swashbuckling captain of the Pakistan cricket team that won the  World Cup for a cricket crazy nation. As a young man his image as a good looking, Oxford-educated playboy who dated some of the most glamorous women and married Jemima Goldsmith, the daughter of a Jewish billionaire, set him apart from the rest of the drab political leaders. His transition from a playboy to a devout Muslim, married now to his spiritual guide Bushra Bibi, has added to Khan’s image. His anti-America rant, immediately after losing a no-confidence motion in Parliament in February 2022, appealed to the conservative sections in rural Pakistan and to the religious minded.

Pakistan Military and PTI     

Khan, once the army’s blue-eyed boy, fell out with former Army chief Qamar Javed Bajwa when, like other former prime ministers, he tried to assert himself. Taking on the powerful Pakistan army is no easy matter; it invariably results in the prime minister being ousted. But Khan also had the support of a section of the top leadership, including the former spy chief Faiz Hameed. Hameed played a huge role in Khan’s election win in 2018 and helped keep him in power by manipulating  smaller political parties to support Khan. The PTI leader would have survived if Faiz Hameed became the next army chief, but that was not to be.

General Asim Munir, the current army commander had clashed with Khan during his short stint in the ISI. He brought to the notice of the then prime minister that Bushra Bibi, her family, and some of her close friends were taking advantage of Imran Khan’s position to make dubious deals. Asim Munir was transferred out of the Inter-Services Intelligence immediately afterwards. As in every other case of a tussle between the army and the political leadership, the army  successfully swatted the civilian government.  

Is the military losing some its legitimacy in Pakistan?

Pakistan’s long history of military dictatorships has been a major reason for the sorry state of its politics. Generals have played fast and loose with politicians. From General Zia ul Haq ordering the hanging of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, to the army dismissing  elected governments headed by both Benazir Bhutto’s Peoples Party of Pakistan(PPP) as well as Nawaz Sharif’s Muslim League, and orchestrating the ouster of Imran Khan’s  PTI government in 2022.

In the past, people looked to the army as the only institution that could hold the country together. Criticism of the army was never publicly aired.

But when Imran Khan was first  arrested in May 2023, violent protests broke out across the country. For the first time, PTI supporters raised anti-army slogans and ransacked the home of a serving officer. This would have been impossible a decade back.

“The Army may be losing some of its legitimacy but certainly not its clout. There is no counter-veiling force to counter the military,” says analyst Ajai Sahani, who follows developments in Pakistan.

Every politician knows what the score is. They are in power so long as they are in the good books of the military. Yet political leaders across the spectrum do not join hands to oppose the military. They are delighted when the generals favour them and put them in charge and feel betrayed when dumped.

When Nawaz Sharif was ousted, he repeatedly took on the army. He said that the army did not respect the will of the people. Yet today, both Sharif and the Bhutto-Zardaris  are happy to be in the army’s good books and have willingly erased the past.

Imran Khan and the PTI may be ranting against the army for now, but once a deal is negotiated much of the anger will evaporate.