The hardline theocratic regime of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in place since the 1979 Islamic Revolution toppled the American-backed government of Shah of Iran Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, is at a crossroads.

Its fight in the shadows with Israel is over. Tehran is being forced to abandon decades of strategic patience as its most powerful proxies— the Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and to a lesser extent the Houthis in Yemen— have been almost dismantled by Israel.

One year since the October 7 Hamas attack, Iran is being reluctantly forced into action to save its assets in the region. Tehran is concerned that failing to respond to Israeli action against the "Axis of Resistance" could lead to the collapse of one of its most important security assets, unravelling the network it has assiduously built through the years and used effectively against Israel.

The red lines drawn by both Israel and Iran no longer hold as the killing of Hezbollah chief Hasan Nasrallah together with the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the head of the Hamas political wing in Tehran, as well as of Iranian General Abbas Nilforoushan, has completely changed the old equations.

Iran has announced that its decades of "self-restraint" was over.

"...after Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah’s and [Brigadier] General [Abbas] Nilforoushan’s martyrdom, the situation was no longer tolerable,” Chief of General Staff of the Iranian Armed forces General Mohammad Baqeri was quoted by Iran’s Press TV as saying.

In April, Tehran had launched rockets and missiles at Israel after the bombing of the Iranian Consulate in Damascus that killed a senior commander of the IRGC, along with seven others. But it was more a symbolic gesture. Israel, too, was persuaded by the international community to exercise maximum restraint in its response.

But this time, much more is at stake. Israel is on top of its game with the success of the military campaigns in Gaza and Lebanon. Iran knows that the killing of Nasrallah, one of its most vital assets in the region, cannot be left unanswered. Besides, there is chatter in Beirut around Iran’s inaction and the feeling of being abandoned. Tehran realises that unless it takes on Israel now, it can never regain the trust of its support base in Lebanon and Gaza.

Hence the barrage of ballistic missiles on October 1, which has given Israel the perfect opportunity to hit back. Reiterating this is Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's appearance in the open— for the first time in five years—to address Friday prayers, where he extolled the virtues of Hasan Nasralla and asked the Muslim world to unite against the Zionist regime. This was also to end the rumours that the Supreme Leader had been whisked away to a safe hiding place over fears that Israel would target him and the regime's top leadership. The Friday prayers was a show of defiance where the Hamas was also publicly praised for the October 7 action that started the war.

The fact that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi chose to visit Beirut on Friday as Lebanon was under heavy aerial bombardment by Israel was a powerful message of reassurance to Hezbollah and Iran-backed militia across Syria, Iraq and Yemen.

“Iran has always shown that it will stand by Lebanon in difficult situations,” Mojtaba Amani, Tehran’s envoy to Beirut said in a statement on the Foreign Minister’s visit. Describing it as a "brave act", he went on to say: “The Islamic Republic of Iran will never allow the fate of the region to be changed by America and the illegal Zionist entity.” “The future will be decided by the countries of the region under the leadership of the resistance front,” he added.

Iran is hoping to shore up support in the neighbourhood. A day after Iran attacked Israel, President Pezeshkian visited Qatar and met with the Emir, Sheikh Tamin. He briefed him on the situation and declared that Iran does not want war with Israel. Qatar, which does not have diplomatic ties with Israel, has been mediating for a ceasefire for several months.

While there, Pezeshkian also met with Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan. Regional rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran established diplomatic relations last year through a China-brokered peace agreement. However, Saudi Arabia and neighbouring UAE vehemently opposed the nuclear pact signed at the end of the Obama administration between the US, China, Russia, UK, France and Germany. The two countries were on the same page as Israel and cooperated to ensure that the deal would be broken. The UAE has also established diplomatic ties with Israel. Iran cannot rely on support from these two major Sunni powers in the region.

Iran's Internal Problem

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei also faces a grim situation at home, where his regime is unpopular. Though the Presidential Election earlier this year saw moderate leader Masoud Pezeshkian take over the reins, there is little he has been able to do so far. Since taking office he had been talking of reviving the nuclear talks and had issued soothing statements to reassure US and Europe. But Israel's actions have ended the prospect of a détente with the West.

Years of Western sanctions have left the Iranian economy in shambles. Inflation has hit the roof and people are finding it difficult to make ends meet. The orthodox regime is not popular except among the die-hard supporters of the revolution. The older generation that remember the excesses of the Shah continue to be loyal, but for the younger generation who have no memory of what happened nearly 45 years ago, the government is unpopular. Many feel stifled by the strict dress code imposed by the regime, and the spontaneous street protest that followed the death in police custody of Masha Amini in 2022 speaks volumes of the discontent. Women threw off their veils, publicly chopped their hair and defied the strict Islamic code imposed by the state. The government cracked down severely on protestors, firing on people and killing over 500. Courts also ordered the execution of seven protestors on trumped-up charges related to the protests. The movement finally died down but the anger has remained.

The Kurds, who form around 10 per cent of Iran’s population, are a restive minority at odds with the federal government in Tehran. Kurdish separatist groups have operated against successive Iranian regimes since the days of the Shah. Iran at the moment is a divided country, with large number of people opposed to the orthodox clergy who are in power since the Revolution.

Prime Minister Netanyahu knows this well. In a recent video message to the people of Iran, he asked them to throw off the current regime that spent much of its funds on promoting anti-Israeli groups like Hezbollah and Hamas instead of providing a better life to its own people. Netanyahu went on to add that the jews and Persians have been friends through history and that once the regime was thrown out there would be peace between the two countries. Netanyahu is hoping that a war with Iran could help dislodge the current theocratic regime.

Recruiting spies from among disgruntled people to carry out assassinations, including that of several Iranian nuclear scientists, has not been too difficult for Israel. According to former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad, the head of Iran’s secret service monitoring Mossad was an Israeli spy who passed on the exact location of the Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh to his Israeli counterpart. Tehran has naturally not confirmed the news.

Despite the unhappiness with the regime, Iranians are likely to side with the government in case of war. At the moment people are indifferent, but this could change quickly. "The majority of the people of Iran are outraged at the crimes of the Zionist regime in Gaza and Lebanon and are surprised at the silence of the people of Arab nations over the killing of innocent Palestinians. In the current situation, Iran has no option but to take firm action to defend its national interests and Iranians are united in support of the government against the Zionist regime and its supporters,’’ says Abdul Rezak Bandi of IRNA, the the Iranian news agency.

Iran is at the moment not in a position to take on Israel. Its defence equipment is old and outdated. However, it has an excellent ballistic missile system as well as a nuclear programme which is just weeks away from developing a nuclear bomb. Israel will not find it easy to take down all of Iran’s ballistic missiles without American help. If it was up to Netanyahu, Iran’s nuclear facility would be under attack. But the US has already conveyed that this is off the list.