Pachyderm Puzzle

THERE are two ways of looking at the death of 15 elephants in the past 45 days in the forests bordering Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. One is to view it like Mudumalai wildlife warden Sanjeev Srivastava does: "Nothing unusual about it. We've had an unusually long dry spell. The dry, deciduous vegetation probably exposed the elephants to high temperatures. Probably, they ran out of food and water." The other way is to be alarmed like Sanctuary magazine editor Bittu Sahgal is: "Good Lord! I can't believe it. It's shocking. Elephants don't live 50-60 years without getting used to the heat and the scarcities. There has to be some kind of intrusion into their lives and habits, some kind of disturbances."

And then there is a third: with India boasting nearly half the 36,000 Asiatic elephant population in the world, and the Nilgiris belt where the deaths occurred home to at least 2,000 of those, the demise of a mere dozen shouldn't have people reaching for the panic button. Says wildlife researcher Ullas Karanth: "If they're natural mortalities, we shouldn't fly off the handle. Animals can (and do) die without a mystery. My fear is, are poaching cases being covered up?" Concurs a senior Kerala forest officer: "Perhaps a gang is at work. They are probably poisoning the elephants in strong doses for tusks and tails."?

Most forest officers, however, dismiss poaching as a possible cause for the spurt in deaths. The international ban on trading in elephant parts has made poaching unviable and risky. And neither tusks nor tails had been removed from the carcasses, and both male and female elephants had died. Says Mysore-based Project Tiger field director B.U. Chengappa: "The deaths were natural. We had no rains between October '95 and April '96. Fodder was not plentiful."?

The huge herbivores require 250-300 kg of grain matter daily along with 300 litres of water. They mostly eat bamboo leaf, elephant grass and the bark of teak trees. In summer, they have to subsist primarily on bark. This, says Wynad wildlife warden O.P. Khaler, could have led to these deaths. "In the dry season, the silica content in their fodder increases and the protein content decreases. Elephants can tolerate up to 5 per cent silica. But that's about it," he says. Post-mortems have revealed little. A mahout who saw one elephant being opened up in Mudumalai says: "Water gushed out like a river."

?Officials categorically state there's no epidemic. An epidemic would have affected the very young and the very old. On the other hand, most casualties in this round have been sub-adults in the under-15 age group although no one is sure of the exact toll. Local journalists say at least 12 elephants have died in the Wynad forests (300 sq km), two in the Mudumalai wildlife sanctuary (321 sq km) and one in the Bandipur reserve forest (880 sq km).

One Karnataka officer says he has heard of seven deaths in Bandipur. But Wynad warden Khaler says that the fact that Kerala accounts for most deaths despite possessing the least forest area among the three states should not come as a surprise. Sixteen elephants died during the same period in 1989, he says. "Elephants migrate from Bandipur and Mudumalai during January-April because the vegetation is thicker and there is more water available."?

Wildlife experts refute the theory of a food and water shortage. Quips Bangalore-based activist Praveen Bhargav: "Water shortage as a cause just doesn't hold water." The Moyar and Kabini rivers are close by. Says Tirunelveli Project Tiger director Pramod Kant: "Elephants can walk long distances to fulfil their needs." The Bombay Natural History Society, which recently fitted a few Mudumalai elephants with radio-collars to monitor their movements, found their home-range extended across 700 sq km.

Wildlife specialist E.R.C. Davidar says elephants used to move from Mudumalai to the Silent Valley in search of sustenance. But the encroachment on forests had closed that option. Result: Crop-raiding is becoming common and the farmers are retaliating by electrifying farm fences. In addition, vast gaps are developing in the forest tracts although the Bandipur-Nagarhole-Mudu-malai-Wynad belt is considered to be one of the great wildlife corridors.

Photographers Krupakar and Senani, who spend half the year in the Nilgiris belt, say a drastic degradation of habitat has coincided with an increase in elephant population. "The elephant has become the most threatened species today—more than the tiger. The number of male, prime, viable, healthy breeding elephants vis-a-vis females is coming down." The male-female ratio, 1:4 at the best of times, has been stretched to 1:10 in the Bandipur range, says range forest officer Rajanna. The development has dangerous implications. With no competition for mating, it can cause inbreeding and make a whole species susceptible to virtually anything.