The Third Dimension

Kamal Haasan, a three-time national award-winning actor, and his political party Makkal Needhi Maiam (MNM), Seeman, director of five Tamil films and a powerful orator, with his Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK), and T.T.V. Dhinakaran, nephew of J.? Jayalalitha’s now retired aide Sasikala, with his breakaway outfit called Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) have -assembled their own alliances to take on the might of the multi-party -alliances forged by M.K. Stalin of the DMK and Edappadi K. Palaniswami of the AIADMK. Their targets are voters not committed to either of the major fronts, those looking for a non-DMK-AIADMK alternative and the large bunch of first-time voters. “These three are competing among themselves to emerge as a viable third front that can challenge the dominance of the DMK and the AIADMK beyond the 2021 -election, says writer Maalan. “Vijaya-kanth tried this in 2006 before he -buckled and forged an alliance with Jayalalitha in 2011, and then formed his own third front with five other smaller parties in 2016, only to be decimated. The story of the third front in Tamil Nadu has been dismal all along.”

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Actor Vijayakanth, who floated his DMDK in 2005 as the third alternative and contested all 234 seats in the 2006 -elections, polled about 9 per cent votes, but was the lone winner from his party. In the 2016 polls, the DMDK drew a blank. His illness and flawed decisions have reduced his party to a shadow of its-elf, and he had to go alliance shopping after the AIADMK refused to heed his -demand for 20 assembly seats. Dhinakaran accommodated him at the last minute with 60 seats, more to save his candidates from contesting in weak constituencies. Vijayakanth’s fall, -however, has failed to deter other -players pitching their own tents, unm-indful of the two entrenched biggies.

So the third-front story of the April 6 election is spearheaded by Kamal Haasan (66), who hopes to emerge as the true alternative to the two Dravidian majors. He tested the waters in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, winning nearly 4 per cent votes, but, more importantly, notching 10 per cent or more votes in five urban seats. Realising that his party’s urban reach can dent the vote-bank of established parties, he has fielded his most visible players from urban seats. He himself has jumped into Coimbatore South, calculating that his party’s LS candidate polled nearly 1.50 lakh votes in Coimbatore in 2019 and that he has to take on only the BJP and Congress candidates there.

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“Kamal should concentrate his -campaign only in urban areas as his strength lies there,” says political -analyst Raveenthran Thuraisamy. “This is why he farmed off 80 rural seats to two of his allies. Even if his party can win two seats, including his own, he will be well placed to build it for the future. If he increases his overall voteshare to 10 per cent, then he can emerge as the alternative as he has been critical of both the DMK and the AIADMK.” In a recent interview, Kamal promised to maintain equidistance from these two parties even if there was a hung assembly and the support of his MLAs became crucial. Like AAP, the MNM too could emerge as the next urban-only party.

Even before Kamal’s arrival, Seeman (54) has been a lone ranger in Tamil Nadu’s rhetoric-filled politics and -contested elections since 2016. As someone who drummed support for the LTTE with his fiery speeches and even sports its tiger symbol on his party’s flag, Seeman has based his politics on Tamil nationalism, insisting that Tamils should get primacy in Tamil Nadu in education or jobs. His rise has caused some unease among non-Tamil -businessmen, who have invested in the state, and other linguistic minorities who have been living there for generations.

“Seeman’s shrill pitch is designed only to attract young impressionable voters,” points out a senior police officer. “Such extreme political posturing may attract crowds, applause and YouTube views, but not votes, as Seeman should have realised by now. Ultimately, he may go the way of Maharashtra’s Raj Thackeray, who was unable to sustain this strident brand of politics.” In the 2016 assembly elections, his NTK could poll only about 1.1 per cent votes, while Seeman finished fifth in the Cuddalore seat. During the 2019 Lok Sabha -elections, he fielded women in half the seats and his voteshare went up to 3.8 per cent. He is repeating the trick in 2021 as well. Unlike the other two smaller parties, he has not entered into alliance with any other outfit, which could prove to be a weakness.

The third player, Dhinakaran (57), is a curious mix of caste, charisma and -cunning. He broke away from the AIADMK in 2018 to float his AMMK as some kind of transit lounge before his aunt Sasikala emerges from prison and takes back control of the AIADMK. Only the first part happened as Sasikala failed to reestablish her grip over the AIADMK and stunned Dhinakaran by announcing her -retirement—not wanting to split the AIADMK votes and help the DMK reg-ain power. Dhinakaran has chosen to charge ahead after the merger efforts with the AIADMK fell through. He hopes to cash in on the Thevar votes that his family has -attracted since the Jayalalitha days. While his presence would definitely eat into the AIADMK votes, and indirectly help the DMK as Sasikala feared, Dhinakaran needs at least a couple of MLAs to flaunt his -political relevance.

“He now has the pressure cooker -symbol, which is familiar to voters after he famously won the R.K. Nagar byelection in 2017 as an independent,” says a close confidante. “The AMMK also has at least a dozen strong candidates, most of them former MLAs, who will make the battle tougher for both the major parties. If he can deny the AIADMK a win and also poll more than 10 per cent votes, EPS and OPS would be forced to talk merger with him.”

The crafty Dhinakaran has also left eight seats to Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM and the SDPI, which would cut into the Muslim votes that normally gravitate towards the DMK in the state. It would also help him argue later that he nibbled away at the DMK votes too, if accused of denting only the AIADMK vote base.

All three candidates have declared themselves as CM aspirants, but even their most ardent supporters nurse no such illusions. The fight for the top job still remains a two-horse race between Stalin and EPS. The third players are in the fray only to establish their -relevance for the future. Seeman would keep plugging on as funds from -diaspora Tamils with similar views keep oiling his party’s wheels. Kamal has -assured he is there for the long haul and unlikely to step back in case of reverses in 2021. Meanwhile, he will keep acting in movies as well. Dhinakaran is using 2021 as a stepping stone to wrest back control of the AIADMK, hoping his aunt Sasikala would rejoin him in that effort after the elections.

The major parties, however, see them as little more than spoilers. Seeman hits at the DMK’s Tamil plank, while Kamal -undermines the DMK’s strong urban vote base. Even though the AIADMK dismisses Dhinakaran as of little -consequence, many of its candidates in the southern parts of the state have to watch their backs due to the Thevar community’s affinity for the AMMK. And the DMK is unhappy that Dhinakaran has introduced another Muslim front to challenge its hegemony over the minority votes.?