Shocking Defeat Of MVA Mirrors Unbelievable Victory Of Shinde Government

Ideology is out, technology is in.

Alliances are out, transactions are in.

Campaigns are out, cash doles are in.

Policies are out, polarisation is in.

Voter identity is out, Hindu ID is in.

“Batenge to Katenge” is in, “Naukri is out”

Muslims are out, “Vote Jihad” is in.

Old Order is out, New Disorder is in.

This sums up the electoral scene in Maharashtra.

Nobody, absolutely nobody, had anticipated the results in Maharashtra. Not even the “Mahayuti”, led by Eknath Shinde, Devendra Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar, thought that they would receive this stunning majority.

In fact, there was so much anxiety in the leadership of the “Mahayuti” that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leadership was in anticipatory talks with over a dozen “independents”, just a day before the results. In case the Shinde-Fadnavis-Ajit Pawar alliance falls short of about 10-15 seats to form government, then it is better to book the loose cannons like independents in advance. That was the so-called strategy of the BJP’s Machiavelli!

The point is the devastating defeat of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) was as much a shock to them as the unbelievably stunning victory of the Shinde government. The reason fresh questions are being asked yet again about the reliability of the EVM system is because of this unpredictability and unpredicted results. While the exit polls had “announced” Mahayuti majority three days before, it was a marginal (or slightly more) seats than the MVA.

The most shattering defeat of not only MVA as a whole, but equally painful was the rout of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) led by Sharad Pawar and the marginalisation of Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena. The Congress has lost all the newly-acquired shine under Rahul Gandhi and the socio-political impact of the Bharat Jodo Yatra.

Now the Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge has thundered that the party will launch a nationwide campaign to demand ballot paper voting. The Election Commission has repeatedly refused to entertain this demand from so many others. Now even the Supreme Court has made a rather political sounding statement that the “Opposition raises doubts about the EVM system when they lose elections. When they win, they don’t raise doubts”.

These results have fundamentally altered the political equations, not only in Maharashtra, but in fact, strengthened Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who had suffered a major setback in the Lok Sabha elections. The dependence on Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar will now be greatly reduced.

The complex predicament is that of Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray. With Ajit Pawar becoming more powerful, Sharad Pawar is in a catch-22 situation. Uddhav has to face the local government elections, mainly the Mumbai and Thane corporation elections. If Fadnavis and Shinde manage to win the Mumbai Corporation, Uddhav and his Sena will be on the course of extinction.

However, politics has a remarkable attribute of defeating the fate of extinction. That depends on the ability and tenacity of the leader and loyalty of his followers.

If Uddhav’s followers choose a cozy and lucrative career, then slowly they could migrate to the Shinde Sena. On the other hand, If Shinde himself feels marginalised with Fadnavis as chief minister, then Uddhav Sena will remain in the status quo position. Similarly, if Sharad Pawar loyalists remain with “Saheb”, then Ajit will have to suffer yet again as a second fiddle in the power hierarchy. True, Ajit has age on his side. But Sharad is a long distance runner, with immense energy and strategic skills.

Fadnavis, with all his self-presumed cleverness, is at the mercy of Modi and Shah. They may be having different plans altogether. They cannot afford to have one more ambitious leader in their firmament.

Therefore, it is a very strange scenario. Despite massive, almost brutal majority, in their command, all three of them, Fadnavis, Shinde and Ajit find themselves insecure and unstable. And notwithstanding the electoral humiliation, Sharad and Uddhav can revive.

We will have to see whether Modi-Shah’s skullduggery will win, or the poker-style political play of Sharad checkmates the Machiavellis.

(Views expressed are personal)