Beyond the victory in Thrissur, the BJP’s overall performance in Kerala is evident in its rising vote share. From 13 per cent in 2019 to 16 per cent, the party has made significant gains. Despite a setback in the 2021 assembly elections, where their vote share fell to 11 per cent, the BJP has managed to recover considerably. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), bolstered by a key ally, the Bharath Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS), now holds a combined vote share of approximately 18 per cent. The BDJS, representing the Ezhava caste—traditionally a Left stronghold—has played a crucial role in enhancing the NDA’s electoral position.

The BJP lost Thiruvananthapuram by a narrow margin. Three-time MP Shashi Tharoor of the Congress had to fight hard in the final rounds of the counting to secure victory by a margin of 16,077 votes against Union Minister Rajeev Chandrasekhar. Compared to his margin of one lakh votes in 2019, this result is almost as good as a defeat for Tharoor who barely managed to get a fourth term in the constituency.

Beyond the two targeted constituencies, the BJP made significant strides in several others. The party/NDA averaged 25 per cent of the votes across 10 Parliamentary constituencies. In eight constituencies, including Thiruvananthapuram and Thrissur, the BJP secured over 20 per cent of the votes. More concerning for the LDF and the UDF is that the BJP ranked first in 11 assembly segments and second in seven, a historic achievement in the state. In 2019, the BJP only managed second place in seven assembly segments and won first place in just one.

Different Parameters

Despite being out of power for two terms, the Congress-led UDF has demonstrated that its foundation in the state remains solid. Traditionally, Kerala voters prefer to send Congress candidates to Parliament and alternate between the LDF and the UDF for state governance. The UDF repeated its sweeping victory this time, losing only two seats—one to the NDA and one to the Left. In 2019, the UDF won 19 seats, leaving just one to the LDF. The UDF’s sweeping victories in two consecutive Lok Sabha elections clearly indicate the people’s desire for political change at the Centre. “Though it was the CPI(M) that took a strong position against the Citizen (Amendment) Act, 2019 (CAA), the voters were clear about who should be sent to Parliament to topple the CAA,” says K P Sethunath, a senior journalist and columnist.

However, the same voters gave an emphatic victory to the LDF in the 2021 state elections, awarding Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan a second term with 99 seats. The voters also favoured the Left in the local body elections in 2020.

Left Hanging

“There was a strong wave of anti-incumbency in the state, but the party failed to assess its strength and paid no attention to it,” remarked a district committee member of the CPI(M), emphasising the need for a deeper introspection and serious corrective measures. Many party cadres and loyalists believe that a strong dislike for Vijayan contributed to this outcome.

“The arrogant attitude and authoritarianism exhibited by the chief minister were crucial factors that kept loyal LDF voters away from the polling booths. We must view this scenario in conjunction with the overall decline in voter turnout. It is significant that even in CPI(M) strongholds, the UDF candidates won by huge margins, signalling a protest from Left loyalists. They either abstained or voted for the BJP or the Congress,” says Sethunath. The loss of votes in Kannur, a CPI(M) bastion, has been particularly embarrassing for the party. K Sudhakaran, the Congress state president, won the seat with a massive margin of 108,982 votes, defeating senior CPI(M) leader M V Jayarajan. Even in Dharmadam assembly constituency, where Vijayan was elected with a margin of 50,123 votes in 2021, the CPI(M) suffered a significant loss.

A closer look at the erosion of votes for both the LDF and the UDF reveals a worrying trend. In 24 assembly segments, the LDF lost five or more per cent of the votes. Data shows that the BJP gained five or more per cent in these constituencies. Similarly, in 30 constituencies, the BJP gained six per cent or more at the expense of the UDF. This indicates an apparent shift of votes from both the LDF and the UDF towards the BJP.

Left intellectuals and activists see this as a political crisis for the CPI(M). They argue that the polarisation engineered by the right-wing social media and the Sangh Parivar organisations has had a gradual and significant impact in Kerala. “This is an ideological crisis that the party must address urgently. The political positions taken by the party against the CAA and in support of Palestine have been interpreted as ‘Muslim appeasement’. The party’s stance is correct, but public perception in Kerala is changing. What was once seen as secular and progressive is now perceived as communal. This shift reflects the deep influence of right-wing ideology in Kerala,” says G P Ramachandran, a writer and political commentator.

Dravidian Deviation

The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam’s (DMK) strong showing of 39 seats in Tamil Nadu was one of the most significant results of the 2024 elections. Though Tamil Nadu did not spring any surprises at first glance, the BJP’s giant growth in vote share comes as a shock and embarrassment to the Dravidian political landscape. Despite ambitious goals, including a targeted win in Coimbatore by party chief K Annamalai, the BJP did not secure any seats. However, the party saw a remarkable increase in its vote share, jumping from 3.5 per cent in 2019 to 10.69 per cent, which elevated the NDA’s total vote share to 18.2 per cent.

In the 23 constituencies it contested, the BJP achieved second place in nine, namely Coimbatore, Nilgiris, Chennai South, Chennai Central, Tirunelveli, Kanyakumari, Tiruvallur, Vellore and Madurai. Additionally, BJP allies, the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) and the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) secured second place in Dharmapuri and Virudhunagar, respectively.

Since 1967, Tamil Nadu’s political scene has been a battleground between the DMK and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK). This election announces the BJP’s emergence as a third force, especially in light of the AIADMK’s poor showing as it failed to win even one seat. This shift marks a notable change in the state’s political dynamics.

While no seats were won, the substantial increase in vote share has boosted the BJP’s confidence as it prepares for the 2026 assembly elections. Similarly, in Kerala, the BJP is reinvigorated and aims to establish a stronger presence in the 2026 state elections.

(This appeared in the print as 'Lotus In The Backwaters')