The SP-Congress combine has been putting up a tough fight in several seats in western Uttar Pradesh which has 29 seats. The NDA had performed well in this region in these seats in 2019. This year, the party which has allied with the Jayant Chaudhary-led Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), is facing anti-incumbency in several seats. At 12 pm today, SP was leading in seats like Kairana, Rampur, Moradabad, Sambhal, while the INC is leading in key seats like Amethi and Rae Bareily. Dimple and Akhilesh Yadav are leading in Manipuri and Kannauj respectively. With the SP having fought the election based on its ‘PDA’ (Pichda, Dalit, Alpasankhyak) formula, these early trends might indicate a consolidation of Muslim-Yadav and OBC votes in favour of the INDIA alliance, especially the SP which had been reduced to seven seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha. 

In Western UP, voter issues like farmers’ crisis, sugarcane prices, inflation, unemployment, and the stray cattle problem seemed to dominate the pre-poll season, despite a fairly polarising campaign being led by the BJP, which has been banking on Ram Mandir, Modi-Yogi factor and development. On the ground, local issues seemed to take precedence over Hindutva, with caste also making a return to electoral “samskara” in several seats. Anger among the Rajputs, for instance, which became apparent in the first couple of phases of the elections, may be having an impact on results in Western Uttar Pradesh. In Meerut, actor Arun Govil, who played Ram in the ‘Ramayana’ television series has been trailing.

In the east, the BJP is ahead in seats like Varanasi where PM Modi is leading after a slight hiccup in the first round of counting. The party also registered leads in seats like Gorakhpur while the Samajwadi Party is ahead in the Azamgarh seat. 

Anti-incumbency seems to be working in favour of the Opposition parties. The potential success of Opposition parties, which faced major losses in the last two elections, indicates a return to local issues for voters who seem to not be under the thrall of the ‘Modi wave’ anymore. As Outlook travelled across the state, voters registered concerns against their sitting MPs. 

In Muzaffarnagar, for instance, where two-time MP and Jat leader Sanjeev Balyan is currently trailing, SP’s Harendra Malik seems to be benefitting from Rajput anger against growing Jat dominance. In seats like Dalit-Muslim majority seats like Saharanpur or Nagina which have been BSP strongholds, Muslim-Dalit vote consolidation seems to have been an Opposition strategy which might be paying off results. INC is leading while Nagina looks in favour of Dalit leader Chandrashekhar Azad ‘Ravan’, contesting independently on his own party ticket. SP has also registered early leads in SC-reserved seats like Kaushambi, Lalvani, Macchhlishahr. The Bahujan Samaj Party, which had won 10 seats in the last Lok Sabha polls, has not registered any leads yet. 

Uttar Pradesh, which sends the highest number of members to the Lok Sabha, is crucial for the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s hattrick at the centre.