Not that humanity, or India, needed any more warning. But the rich bequest of ominous signs that nature is throwing at us seems to be unending. The dire air of emergency that hung over 2020 is drifting over to the New Year, like a sickness-laden smog, with the country firefighting a new crisis: avian influenza or bird flu. Thousands of birds have been infected in at least 10 states across the country. The Type A viruses that cause bird flu naturally abound among wild aquatic birds—but they spill over sometimes to domestic breeds, even hopping over to animals. Right now, we are in precisely such a situation of that dam having been breached.

Initial estimations are that the danger of human infection is minimal, but with the mutant coronavirus still stalking us, no one is taking any chances with another set of pathogens ass-aulting humanity from a new flank. As Uttarakhand became the 10th state to confirm bird flu, the Centre has gone into an overdrive to check its further spread. Given the large number of dead birds found across India, it’s also examining the availability of animal vaccines. Other states that have confirmed the outbreak include Delhi, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Kerala, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana and Gujarat. These states have set up helplines and surveillance has been strengthened around water bodies, live bird markets, zoos and poultry farms.

After test reports from the Bhopal-based National Institute of High-Security Animal Diseases (NIHSAD) confirmed bird flu in Delhi, the state government pressed the panic button. As a precautionary measure, Delhi first imp-osed a ban on the sale of processed and packaged chicken brought from outside the city, and then, on January 13, imp-osed a ban on sale and storage of chicken by shops and restaurants. Some of its major parks were shut after birds were found dead. This included Sanjay Lake, an artificial, 42-acre wetland zone created on the eastern bank of the Yamuna that attracts migratory birds and sits in the middle of thickly populated areas. Ghazipur, the biggest wholesale poultry market, too, has been temporarily shut.

All this is a matter of abundant caution by governments singed by the Covid experience. Rakesh Singh, director of Delhi’s animal husbandry department, says the public need not panic as the strain has been identified as “low pathogenic” with a “minimal” risk to public health. “We have strengthened surveillance and 11 rapid response teams and a team of doctors have been pressed into service.? We have also set up a 24/ 7 control room,” Singh tells Outlook. The deaths, as of now, are being reported among crows and ducks in the city.

The question of which strain of bird influenza is at large is important, because each shows variable behaviour in terms of human infectivity. Samples from Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Kerala have revealed the A (H5N8) strain of the virus, while samples from Himachal Pradesh and Maharashtra have been identified as A (H5N1). Of the two, H5N8 is considered to be low pathogenic and chances of human transmission are rare, says Singh. H5N1 does occasionally infect humans—with a 60 per cent mortality, according to WHO. But human infection does not happen easily, and it is even rarer to see person-to-person transmission. “Almost all cases of H5N1 infection in people have been associated with close contact with infected live or dead birds, or H5N1-contaminated environments,” says WHO. Of the many varieties of avian flu virus, only a few can be threatening to humans. Experts say the virus’s transmission to humans is possible only if a mutated strain emerges. The H5N1 itself mutating to increase its own capacity to find human hosts is a matter of fearful, but warranted, speculation.

The virus was first reported in China in 1996. In India, the first outbreak was reported in Nandurbar district, Mahara-sh-tra, in 2006. This time too, Maharashtra has seen a worrying number of poultry bird deaths. Some 843 chicken samples from Parbhani district were among those that tested positive for avian flu. The state animal husbandry department is trying to check any spread by undertaking culling operations in the affected districts. The situation looks grim in states like UP and Haryana, which are on high alert after reported deaths of crows, poultry and other birds. Haryana has reported four lakh bird deaths—the highest number so far. Culling of over 1.6 lakh birds is under way at five poultry farms in Panchkula district, say officials. They cite the arrival of migratory birds during winter as a possible reason for the virus spread. Himachal Pra-desh too is still reeling under the outbreak. The state government is not taking any chances, says Chief Minister Jai Ram Thakur. “We are treating the outbreak with utmost seriousness. Our greatest worry is that the disease may spread to local and wild birds, pri--marily crows. Since the crow lives closer to human habitations, we fear it can spread the virus to humans or poultry,” Thakur tells Outlook.

On December 28, hundreds of migratory birds—mainly Bar-headed geese, one of the endangered species visiting Himachal’s Pong Dam Lake—were found dead. Subsequently, a sample test at NIHSAD Bhopal confirmed the presence of H5N1. The state government has pressed 65 rapid response teams into action at the lake and an area of 10 km radius around it is declared a surveillance zone. Wildlife officials say this is the first time that these wetlands have been hit by avian flu. “It is shocking that H5N1 has reached these Himalayan wetlands, a resting place for over a lakh migratory birds. The birds arrive in September and return in February-March,” says Archana Sharma, chief conservator of forests (wildlife). Most come from Siberia, Russia, Tibet and Central Asia. Pong Dam is the main tourist attraction in lower Him-a--chal Pradesh because of these migratory birds (and water sports facilities), but all tourism activities stand suspended.

The situation is under control in Alappuzha and Kottayam, the epicentres of the outbreak in Kerala, say officials. The H5N8 strain was confirmed on January 4 in both districts. Samples were sent to NIHSAD Bhopal after mass deaths of ducks were reported on December 23. As many as 50,000 poultry birds—mainly ducks—had to be culled to control the spread, says Alappuzha district collector A. Alexander. “The culling within a one-km radius was completed in three days and the area was sanitised. Central teams have visited the district for epidemiological investigation,” he says. No incidents of human transmission have been reported yet, though a strict vigil is being kept on farmers and the team involved in culling for any symptoms. “We have set up teams under the DMO. Besides surveillance, they are providing preventive medicines to farmers and labourers involved in culling,” he says. The district faced a similar situation in 2014 and 2016, and it needed mass culling of two lakh ducks. “This time, timely intervention has helped,” he adds. Unlike Delhi or other states, Kerala’s poultry markets are operational. However, transport of birds is prohibited in affected areas.

In Kottayam too, district collector M. Anjana says the virus’s spread has been checked through the culling of 7,597 ducks and 132 chickens—again with the culling team pre-armed with anti-viral medicines. Any symptoms will mean a seven-day quarantine. “We are keeping our surveillance on. Nothing unusual has been reported so far,” she says. “People around the epi-centres are also being monitored daily. No human transmission has been reported so far.” On the question of consumption of poultry products, Anjana says there would be no food safety risk as long as poultry products are cooked thoroughly. “There is no chance of contracting the virus from eating chicken and eggs if it’s cooked in temperatures over 70 degrees Celsius,” she says.

By Preetha Nair, and Ashwani Sharma in Shimla