In June 2022, the then minister for Urban Development and an important leader in the Shiv Sena Eknath Shinde had rebelled against the leadership of then chief minister Uddhav Thackeray and had split the saffron party. He had walked out of the Shiv Sena with a sizeable number of the party MLAs, aligned with the BJP and formed a government with former chief minister and leader of the opposition Devendra Fadnavis. In a turn of political events, which led to the collapse of the tripartite Maha Vikas Aghadi Government headed by Thackeray, Shinde formed the new government even as disqualification proceedings were pending against him and 16 other Shiv Sena MLAs.

After months of hearing by a five-judges bench of the SC, the verdict is expected to be pronounced today. Though there are numerous issues before the apex court, the most important of them on which the court is expected to give its ruling pertains to the validity of the decision of the then Maharashtra Governor Bhagat Singh Koshyari to mandate a floor test for the then Maha Vikas Aghadi government led by Uddhav Thackeray. Thackeray had resigned as chief minister. Shinde, the leader of the splinter group of the Shiv Sena had taken over as the chief minister the next day, in a turn of political events. Shinde was supported by the BJP and former chief minister Devendra Fadnavis came in as his deputy. ?

The then Governor had invited Shinde to form the government in the state despite the pending disqualification proceedings against Shinde and the legislators of his faction, before the then deputy speaker of the Maharashtra Assembly, under the Anti Defection Act.

If the 5-judge bench of the SC rules that the decisions of the then Governor were unconstitutional, then the ruling has to include whether the government headed by Shinde is valid. The court had remarked during the proceedings that Thackeray had resigned instead of facing the floor test and it was a “political conundrum”. ?
Thackeray’s plea to the SC requests the top court to decide on the disqualification petitions filed by the Thackeray and Shinde camps against each other, directly so that it is not affected by political prejudices and considerations. Another important ruling is expected in the decision of the speaker Rahul Narvekar to give recognition to the Shinde faction as the real Shiv Sena. The legal sanctity of this decision stands questioned now through Thackeray’s petition. The then deputy speaker of the Assembly, Narhari Zirwhal, had initiated disqualification proceedings against Shinde and 16-MLAs of his faction – a fact challenged by the Shinde faction. The SC will also have to give a ruling in this matter.

If the decision goes in favour of Shinde, it will be a major victory for him and the MLAs of his faction. This could also lead to major defections from the faction led by Thackeray. Shinde could also emerge as the face of the ruling Shiv Sena-BJP alliance in the 2024 Assembly elections in Maharashtra. If it is a pro-Shinde decision, it will have a strong impact on the factions’ prospects of victory in the elections of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) to be held later this year. ?
If the verdict goes against Shinde and the validity of the decision of the then Governor to call Thackeray for a floor test, then the Shinde-Fadnavis government will collapse. Since Thackeray had quit before the floor test, he cannot be reinstated as chief minister even if the SC rules that Koshyari’s decision was invalid. In such a case, both the factions – Thackeray and Shinde – will have to prove their majority adhering to the procedure laid down by the top court. ?

However, if the court leaves the decision of disqualification to the speaker of the Maharashtra Assembly, it will help the Shinde government survive until elections in 2024. (EOM) ? ? ?
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