The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Wednesday said that the southwest monsoon is expected enter Kerala around May 31. In general, the southwest monsoon enters Kerala on June 1 maintaining a standard deviation of about 7 days. This year, a model error margin of 4 days has been calculated.

The onset date plays the role of a crucial indicator of monsoon across the nation which brings respite from the excruciatingly hot summer temperatures.

The state-of-the-art statistical model encompasses the following key predictors to predict the onset date:

• minimum temperatures over Northwest India

• pre-monsoon rainfall patterns over the south peninsula

• various atmospheric parameters over the equatorial southeast Indian Ocean and the southwest Pacific Ocean.

Except in 2015, IMD's operational forecasts of the date of monsoon onset over Kerala during the past 19 years were proved to be accurate.

Fresh heatwave for Northwest and East India: IMD

Besides the prediction of monsoon in Kerala, a fresh spell of scorching heat waiting to sweep over Northwest and East India, beginning May 16, according to the IMD.

According to the weather watchdog, the heat wave is expected to intensify over various states in Northwest India, including West Rajasthan, Punjab, south Haryana, and parts of Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. East Rajasthan, Bihar, and Uttar Pradesh are also expected to experience severe heatwave conditions during this period.

“Heat wave conditions very likely in isolated pockets over Gujarat Region during 15th-17th; Konkan on 15th & 16th; Saurashtra & Kutch on 16th & 17th; Delhi, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, Odisha on 18th & 19th May, 2024,” IMD said in a release.Hot and humid weather is expected to prevail over Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, and Bihar on May 15 and 16.