As Jharkhand prepares for its upcoming assembly elections, intense seat-sharing discussions are underway among political parties on both sides. Incumbent Chief Minister Hemant Soren, who has faced a tumultuous tenure marked by his recent arrest and days spent in jail, aims to secure a second mandate following his 2019 victory. Meanwhile, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), buoyed by its recent success in Haryana, is keen to replicate that momentum in Jharkhand. The stage is set for a pivotal electoral battle that could reshape the political landscape of the state which has been marked by political instability ever since its formation in 2000.

Here, Outlook looks at the mandates in the Jharkhand assembly elections over the years:

2019 elections

The 5th Legislative Assembly elections held in Jharkhand in 2019 saw a JMM-Congress-RJD sweep with the alliance bagging 47 out of 81 Assembly seats. Hemant Soren-led Jharkhand Mukti Morcha emerged as the single largest party in the state, winning 30 seats, while the BJP managed to win 25. The Congress, third in the tally, won 16 seats and RJD won one.

The tribal party's victory came as it faced its most significant challenge, confronted with the threat of a complete wipeout. Just six months prior, in the Lok Sabha elections in May, the BJP had severely weakened the JMM, securing 11 out of 14 seats.

The JMM-Cong-RJD alliance focused on the Scheduled Tribe-Muslim-Yadav (ST-MSY) vote bank, which makes up nearly half of the state’s population. They won 25 of the 28 reserved Scheduled Tribe seats. The JMM won seven seats in Santhal Pargana, eight in Kolhan, and four in South Chhotanagpur, where the Congress captured four of its six ST seats. In contrast, the BJP's performance plummeted from 11 ST-reserved seats in 2014 to just two in 2019.

The split between the AJSU Party and the incumbent BJP had a significant impact on the election outcome. Contesting alone for the first time, the BJP overestimated its electoral strength. Prior to the polls, AJSU sought around 20 seats, but the BJP was willing to concede only 15. This breakdown in negotiations weakened both parties, allowing the JMM-Congress-RJD coalition to capitalise on the situation. As a result of their fractured alliance, the BJP lost as many as four seats, and the AJSU is believed to have lost two. Had they contested together, the dynamics of the election could have shifted considerably.

Despite the BJP’s higher vote share of 33.4 per cent compared to the Mahagathbandhan's 32.6 per cent, the party suffered a significant defeat. The close margin of victory for the MGB highlights how a few thousand votes made all the difference, with sixteen Members of Legislative Assembly elected by less than 5 per cent margins

With AJSU recording an 8 per cent vote share, the situation could have turned out differently had the party contested in alliance with the BJP.

The BJP is believed to have lost the election for several key reasons. The BJP's campaign focused on Hindutva themes, such as the amendment of Article 370 and the Supreme Court's Ayodhya verdict. However, anti-tribal policies, including proposed amendments to the Indian Forest Act and the threat of tribal evictions due to a Supreme Court order, alienated many voters. The JMM highlighted these concerns in its manifesto, emphasizing illegal land acquisitions and the non-implementation of the Forest Rights Act. Furthermore, the BJP's decision to appoint the state's first non-tribal chief minister in 2014 fueled resentment among tribal communities.

2014 elections

The 2014 Jharkhand elections marked a significant political shift in the state, as the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) - All Jharkhand Students’ Union (AJSU) alliance emerged victorious, securing a clear mandate, a first for any party or alliance, since Jharkhand was established in 2000.

The BJP won 37 of the 72 seats it contested, while its ally, the AJSU, secured 5 of the 8 seats it contested. This alliance was crucial in delivering a decisive win against a fragmented opposition of Congress and JMM.

The BJP received a vote share of 31.8 per cent, compared to the JMM's 20.8 per cent. The JMM did manage to improve its performance slightly, winning 19 seats— up from 18 in the previous election—but it was unable to secure significant victories in its traditional stronghold, Santhal Parganas. This could be attributed to a shift in voter sentiment, as non-tribal voters consolidated against the JMM.

The BJP's success can largely be attributed to the prevailing "Modi wave," which had swept the nation following the Lok Sabha elections in May 2014, while the JMM faced challenges due to anti-incumbency sentiments and the demand for change.

The Congress emerged as one of the biggest casualties of the election results winning only six seats, down from 14 in 2009. Following its defeat in the 2014 general elections, the Congress fractured its alliances in Maharashtra, Jammu and Kashmir, and ultimately with the JMM in Jharkhand, a decision that proved detrimental.

2009 elections

The 2009 Jharkhand assembly elections resulted in a fractured mandate, with no party gaining a clear majority. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) each secured 18 seats, while the Indian National Congress won 14 seats. The Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik) (JVM-P) obtained 11 seats, followed by the All Jharkhand Students’ Union (AJSU) and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), each with 5 seats, and Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)) with 2 seats. The JMM managed to form government in December 2009 with support from several other parties, including the BJP. Shibu Soren returned as chief minister. However, this coalition was short-lived, as the BJP withdrew its support in June 2010, leading to the government's collapse.

2004 elections

In the 2005 Jharkhand assembly elections, the state held its first electoral process, but no single political party received a clear mandate to form a government. Shibu Soren, the leader of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), staked a claim to leadership in alliance with Congress and RJD (with the three parties winning 17, 9 and 7 seats respectively) and was invited to form government. 

After being sworn in as chief minister, he resigned just ten days later after he failed to receive the vote of confidence. Subsequently, Arjun Munda of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led a coalition government, and went on to become the CM. However, this coalition proved unstable, lasting only about a year and a half before Munda resigned in 2006 due to defections within the ranks. Following his departure, a new coalition government, supported by the JMM, took charge, notably led by independent MLA Madhu Koda.