The surge in fighting in Syria has raised the prospect of another violent front emerging in the already war-torn West Asia.
The 13-year civil war in Syria has roared back into prominence with a surprise rebel offensive on Aleppo, Syria's second-largest city. After a lightning advance in just a few days, rebels captured almost all of Aleppo. The push is among their strongest in years, in a war whose destabilising effects have rippled far beyond Syria’s borders.
Rebel groups in northwestern Syria say they are advancing toward the city of Hama after taking control of Aleppo in an offensive that began last week. Meanwhile,The White Helmets, officially known as the Syrian Civil Defence, reported that at least 25 people, including 10 children, were killed in airstrikes carried out by Syrian and Russian forces on Sunday, during the counterattacks.
The surge in fighting has raised the prospect of another violent front emerging in the already war-torn West Asia. This was the first opposition attack on Aleppo since 2016, when a brutal Russian air campaign helped Syrian President Bashar Assad recapture the northwestern city. Support from Russia, Iran, Iranian-allied Hezbollah, and other groups has allowed Assad to retain power over the 70 percent of Syria under his control.
The opposition fighters, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), say the attacks are retaliation for recent Syrian government assaults on Idlib cities, including Ariha and Sarmada, which caused civilian casualties, including the deaths of children.
It is also the first major assault on Assad’s forces in the region since the 2020 ceasefire brokered by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
For 13 years, Assad has been at war with opposition forces seeking his overthrow, a conflict that’s killed an estimated half a million lives. Around 6.8 million Syrians have fled the country.
Roughly 30 percent of Syria remains outside Assad’s control, divided among various opposition groups and foreign troops. In the northeast, far from Aleppo, the U.S. maintains about 900 troops to prevent a resurgence of the Islamic State. Both the U.S. and Israel occasionally carry out strikes in Syria against government forces and Iran-allied militias. Turkey also has troops in Syria and wields influence over the broad coalition of opposition forces advancing on Aleppo.
The Four Main Groups Competing for Control in Syria
Syrian Government Forces: The army, Assad's primary military force, is supported by the National Defence Forces, a pro-government paramilitary group.
HTS and Allied Rebel Groups: HTS, an evolution of the al-Nusra Front, was previously linked to al-Qaeda but severed those ties in 2016.
Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF): A Kurdish-dominated, U.S.-backed group that controls parts of eastern Syria.
Turkish and Turkish-Aligned Syrian Rebel Forces: The Syrian National Army, a Turkish-backed rebel force, operates in northern Syria.
At the height of the Arab Spring in 2011, pro-democracy demonstrators in Syria took to the streets, demanding the removal of authoritarian President Bashar al-Assad. The protests were met with deadly force, and as Assad’s forces crushed the movement, an armed opposition began to emerge. This opposition included small local militias and defectors from the Syrian military.
The opposition, united by the goal of toppling Assad but divided by differing ideologies, received support from foreign powers, including neighboring Turkey, regional players like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and the United States.
As the anti-government forces expanded, Syria’s allies, Iran and Russia, increased their backing. On the ground, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard and its Lebanese ally Hezbollah fought alongside Assad’s forces. In the skies, Russian warplanes supported the Syrian Air Force.
By 2014, extremist groups gained dominance as ISIS swept across the country. In response, an international coalition led by the U.S. intervened, focusing on eliminating ISIS without directly confronting the Syrian regime. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a U.S.-backed group composed of Kurdish fighters, played a crucial role in defeating ISIS and ending its territorial control.
In 2020, Russia and Turkey brokered a ceasefire in Idlib, the last opposition-held province, establishing a security corridor with joint patrols.
While no major flare-ups have occurred since then, the Syrian government has not regained full control of the country. As recent events in Aleppo show, armed resistance continues to persist.