The 29th United Nations Climate Conference (COP29) in Baku, Azerbaijan, is halfway through, yet significant progress remains elusive, especially on the critical issue of climate finance. The annual gathering, intended to address global challenges related to climate change, has seen distractions overshadow decisions during its first week. As ministers and decision-makers prepare to take center stage in the coming days, the stakes are high for resolving funding disputes and laying the groundwork for actionable agreements.

The Funding Gap: A Trillion-Dollar Divide

A central theme of COP29 is the financial commitment required from developed nations to assist poorer countries in transitioning away from fossil fuels, adapting to climate impacts, and addressing the losses caused by extreme weather events. Developing nations have united behind a demand for $1.3 trillion annually—a figure they believe reflects the scale of the crisis. However, developed nations, led by countries like the United States and Canada, have yet to move beyond their long-standing commitment to a $100 billion annual climate fund, first pledged over a decade ago.

“All the developing countries look very united behind $1.3 trillion. That’s not a ceiling. That’s what they want. That’s what they think they need,” said Debbie Hillier, policy lead at Mercy Corps. She added, “The U.S. and Canada are constantly talking about a floor of $100 billion... So you’ve got $100 billion at one end and $1.3 trillion on the other end.”

Harjeet Singh, global engagement director for the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, expressed concern about the lack of transparency from wealthier nations. “The intention of developed countries to really come clean and show commitment is missing,” Singh said. “They have not uttered a single word on what the (final total) is going to be, which is very disturbing.”

UN Climate Secretary Simon Stiell called for faster progress on the negotiations, emphasizing the urgency of the moment: “What’s at stake here in Baku is nothing less than the capacity to halve emissions this decade and protect lives and livelihoods from spiraling climate impacts.”

How Climate Talks Work: The Role of Brinkmanship

COP conferences are infamous for their last-minute deals, often reached through high-pressure negotiations. Experts explain that this approach is by design.

“Member states have not moved, and parties have not moved as expeditiously as they need to do,” said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme. “This is causing frustration. I understand that. So the answer is to push and push more and ensure that we land where we need to land.”

Avinash Persaud, a climate adviser at the Inter-American Development Bank, described the process as one of brinkmanship. “COP works on brinkmanship,” Persaud explained. “COP works on the fear of us not reaching agreement in the end, which makes the process appear chaotic from the outside.”

The presence of political leaders in the second week typically shifts the negotiations to a higher gear. Ministers attending COP29 will also need to coordinate with leaders at the G20 summit in Brazil. With the G20 nations responsible for 77% of global greenhouse gas emissions, their decisions will significantly influence the talks in Baku.

The Role of the COP Presidency

Leadership at COP conferences is crucial in bridging divides. This year’s COP president, Mukhtar Babayev, has adopted a softer, more conciliatory approach compared to his predecessors. While some see this as a positive change, others question whether his approach will yield the necessary results.

“What I see with Mukhtar is that he uses a gentle presence, a degree of humility in his very presence,” said Andersen. Babayev himself struck an optimistic tone, stating, “We have made good progress in the first week. We’re feeling positive, but there is still much work to do. Success does not depend on one country or party alone – it requires all of us.”

However, Mohamed Adow, director of the think tank Power Shift Africa, was less hopeful. “The presidency is not giving any hope for how he will help the world strike the right compromises,” Adow said.

Distractions and Controversies in the First Week

The opening week of COP29 was marred by controversies and external distractions. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s combative welcome speech drew criticism for its political tone. In his speech, Aliyev described oil and gas—key drivers of climate change—as a “gift from the Gods,” triggering criticism from climate activists.

Aliyev also clashed with France, prompting the French environment minister to withdraw from the talks. Meanwhile, Argentina recalled its delegation, signaling its potential withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement under its newly elected right-wing government.

Activists have also criticized the conference for being too closely tied to fossil fuel interests. Over 1,700 participants linked to the fossil fuel industry attended the negotiations, further raising concerns about the credibility of the talks.

Cautious Optimism for Week Two

Despite the setbacks, some leaders remain hopeful that progress can be made in the second week. Cedric Schuster, chair of the Alliance of Small Island States and environment minister of Samoa, emphasized the importance of maintaining the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

“We need to keep 1.5 alive,” Schuster said. “Discussions are progressing, and we hope to get there.”

Sehr Raheja from the Centre for Science and Environment in New Delhi urged developed nations to step up: “Countries have gone for the lowest-hanging fruit so far. Developed nations will have to engage in good faith on the issues of total money needed if there’s a chance of getting a strong outcome.”

Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, called for a greater sense of urgency. “Despite the recent devastation the world has experienced and the soaring rise in temperatures, the urgency really hasn’t yet been felt here in Baku,” Hare said.

As the second week of COP29 begins, the focus will be on bridging the financial gap, fostering political will, and ensuring the conference delivers concrete actions to combat climate change. Whether the talks can overcome their slow start and distractions remains to be seen, but the need for decisive action has never been clearer.